Sri Lanka: The new president’s primary challenge will be to set the economy right
Anura Kumar Dissanayake has ridden on the wave of public anger and is tasked to change the political system to make it more honest and responsive
Anura Kumar Dissanayake (AKD) of the National People's Power (NPP) won the presidential election in Sri Lanka. Simultaneously, the announcement of the appointment of the NPP National List MP Harini Amarasuriya, a Colombo-based and well-educated women’s leader, as the prime minister has created a perception of political change in the debt-ridden country.
While there was no surprise in AKD’s victory, it was the first time that Sri Lankan election authorities had to count the second preference votes because AKD did not get a majority in the first round. As it turned out, AKD became the first Lankan president to be elected on a minority vote, securing just over 42% of the total ballots polled. In fact, in the preferential voting, he lost to Sajith Premadasa. The first round of voting turned out to be decisive, as it took out the 50% vote requirement to win.
Contrary to poll predictions, AKD won about 42% of the vote instead of the anticipated 48%. He was followed by Sajith Premadasa at 32% who could not increase his vote share in the final stages. The rising poll figures for outgoing Ranil Wickremesinghe turned out to be ephemeral, and he was nowhere near the 28% predicted vote share, ending up with barely 17%. His vote share, in fact, turned out to be the spoiler for Sajith and a facilitator for AKD’s victory.
The AKD victory is symbolic of the public’s unhappiness with the way traditional parties like Wickremesinghe’s UNP and the SLFP/SLPP of the Rajapakses have governed the country. People are unhappy with the state of the economy as well as their own economic plight and are also exasperated with widespread corruption. The Araglaya movement, two years ago, ousted the Rajapakses, but there was not enough political heft for the NPP within the parliament. This allowed Wickremesinghe to lead Sri Lanka with SLPP support.
Undoubtedly, Wickremesinghe’s administration worked well to alleviate the critical economic situation that Sri Lanka was in. Their adherence to an Extended Finance Facility (EFF) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been praised, but there are miles to go before Sri Lanka extracts itself from the economic crisis.
This is the primary task before AKD – set the economy right. He has ridden on the wave of public anger and is tasked to change the political system to make it more honest and responsive. With his victory, he will now have to work with the IMF and other creditors, including India, to see that the EFF program, which still has 30 months to run, goes on smoothly.
One problem of this programme is that while it seemingly improves Sri Lanka's economic stability, the impact on the poor people is immense, and that is why AKD has won handsomely in the south, including in the suburbs of Colombo, which otherwise Sajith should have won. How he will deal with the IMF and the creditors and fulfil the aspirations of the Sri Lankan people is now the main challenge.
What happens next? First, the IMF team will be in Sri Lanka in two weeks, and the new president has to present an acceptable position, lest the IMF concludes that the EFF cannot continue and stops further disbursements. This will also irk India. China is watching how Sri Lanka deals with its debt problems, though it has not been a part of the solution. AKD, given its perception of being close to China, will need to deal with Beijing to bring them to the table on acceptable terms.
The other big challenge is how to form a cabinet. The current parliament in which the NPP has only three seats, is not politically amenable to the party. It is dominated by the Rajapakse’s SLPP and Premadasa is the leader of the opposition. AKD’s dissolution of parliament is a given, because he can take advantage of the groundswell in his favour and ask for a parliament which will resonate with his political commitment.
Nevertheless, a cabinet has to be formed. He seems to depend on the three NPP MPs to form the cabinet with him as president and Amarasuriya as the prime minister. They are likely to share the portfolios with Vijita Herath, the third MP until elections are held. Will AKD be able to bring in respected technocrats to lead the country in critical areas? His party lacks administrative experience. AKD himself was the agriculture and irrigation minister under former President Chandrika Kumaratunga; Harini was a deputy speaker. Herath from Gampaha is the third MP. AKD and Harini are both from Colombo. The government will need to represent the rest of Sri Lanka which decisively voted for AKD.
AKD has often spoken about Vietnam as a model of pragmatic socialism. He is also keen to follow well-established development patterns emerging from the experience of the UN and other development partners.
Sri Lanka has given a mandate for change. The winners of that mandate now need to work towards economic stability and assuage the anger of citizens.
Gurjit Singh is a former Indian ambassador to the African Union and is an honorary professor, IIT Indore. The views are personal
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