New grammar of India-US relations

“Will Biden continue to double down on India?” was the refrain amongst experts and officials as Joseph Biden began his tenure as the 46th President of the United States (US). Four years later, it is safe to say that India-US ties have undergone a second transformation. The first was roughly between 2001 — when George W Bush came to power — and the end of the Donald J Trump presidency. That period deserves a book in its own right. Indeed, many have been written.

On Saturday, when Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi meets President Biden for the Quad Leaders Summit in Delaware, they will be concluding a new book that underscores the ideational and material conversions that have taken place in the past four years. This will be the last in-person and official meeting between the two leaders. So, what defines the Modi-Biden era?

A well-defined cognitive shift to unhesitatingly strengthen different kinds of ties shaped the way both sides dealt with each other’s imperatives. Some of this had to do with China’s differentiated challenge to both countries. A lot of this was driven by re-discovering lost opportunities of the past and realising the new and emerging potential of the present. India’s increasing import of oil and deep military dependencies on Russia may have, at best, led to a quiver between the two bureaucratic States. It left the strategic design for deeper partnerships largely untouched.

The manifestations of this ideational shift were real and can be counted in investments and new industry-led arrangements alike. In January 2023, National Security Advisors (NSA) on both sides inaugurated the India-US initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET). This was a new way of deepening cooperation. It requires as much from industry and academia as from different parts of both governments.

An American semiconductor company was the first of at least six projects till date that tapped into India’s incentive scheme. Bricks and mortar are being laid to build a new Outsourced Assembly and Testing Plant (OSAT) in Gujarat. Two legacy defence agreements on the co-innovation of jet engines and the purchase of armed drones were re-invigorated. Reportedly, they are close to conclusion. A chip-making facility for national security to be built in India is being negotiated.

Export controllers in the US loosened their grip. The key was to create a communication bridge between firms besieged by the enormity and complexity of controls and controllers struggling to understand the problem at hand. Of course, this process will need to be sustained. A Strategic Trade Dialogue (STD) was created to institutionalise this channel.

The third INDUS-X summit concluded in early September 2023 in Palo Alto. This new ecosystem connects those creating and investing in cutting-edge technologies in both countries; iCET deliverables have a long way to go, but much has been achieved in a relatively short period of time.

There was every likelihood that this would not have been the case. The two sides confront several global and local challenges. These include the respective stakes at play regarding the war in Ukraine, differing views on the meaning of rights, and the effects of an alleged Indian intelligence-led operation on American soil.

But, the two countries have managed to move ahead despite these. Further, defence ties are deeper than they have ever been. This is as much a function of legacy arrangements, established processes, and the current state of geopolitics as it is for a fresh fervour in India to diversify away, at least as far as possible, from age-old but necessary dependencies. Five 2+2 meetings (with respective defence and foreign ministers) have taken place. A key supply agreement was signed last month. C-130Js, C-17s, P8Is, Apaches, Chinooks, and MH60R helicopters are changing capabilities for the Indian military. The US army has reached out to Indian defence firms to produce everything from nuts and bolts to cartridges and artillery. There are five sets of ever-more complex bilateral military exercises that include all three Indian services. In sum, the commitment to military and security ties is clear.

The combination of the ideational clarity to deepen ties and the material benefits of the same has built a grammar for resilience that may not be irreversible but can’t be taken for granted either. Leaders, diplomats, and national security officials on both sides work hard — between the two countries and within their own systems — to keep the resilience going. This is also why the Modi-Biden book is tilted more toward substance than thrills. Challenges exist. There is much to be done. But, for a moment, as the two principals meet, it is well worth thinking about both the drivers and effects of this new book in India-US ties, and how that might be sustained as the 47th American president is elected later this year.

Rudra Chaudhuri is director,Carnegie India. The views expressed are personal