Keeping up with UP | Migrants in focus for Mumbai poll battle

These 65 seats will witness a bitter battle between two multi-party blocs – the BJP-led Mahayuti and the Congress-headed Maha Vikas Agadi (MVA) – which will take their electoral fight from north to Maharashtra.

Uttar Pradesh (UP) accounts for 41% of the total migrant population, followed by Gujarat, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Bihar. Leaders from the cow-belt states are often deployed by political parties to woo the migrants. Soon, from Tejaswi Yadav to Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati, BJP's Yogi Adityanath and Rajnath Singh will land in Mumbai with their poll rhetoric. Their mission: To woo the city's burgeoning north Indian population, which has become a decisive vote bank over the years.

Unlike them, the regional parties of Bihar have so far resisted the temptation of trying their electoral fortunes in the MMR in a big way. "The parties (from Bihar) have contested in seats, (but) often in alliance with the Congress," said politician Sanjay Nirupam who is from Bihar and active in the politics and issues involving migrants in Maharashtra.

But UP’s two major political parties — the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) — have tested their electoral fortunes in the state in successive elections with little success in terms of seats or vote share.

Recalling the socialist movement in Maharashtra SP national president Akhilesh Yadav said the leaders who played a critical role were Ram Manohar Lohia, Madhu Limaye, SM Joshi, Mrinal Gore and George Fernandes, many of them contemporaries of the party's founder president Mulayam Singh Yadav, who also shared a close relationship with Mumbai. Fernandes had won the 1967 Lok Sabha polls from Mumbai, defeating SK Patil of the Congress. This victory had earned him the sobriquet of George, the giant killer.

Similarly, the BSP’s founder president Kanshi Ram had not only begun his career in Pune but had also started his political journey from Maharashtra. He had supported the Republican Party of India before floating the BSP in 1984.

Interestingly, both parties have another political purpose behind their Maharashtra mission. While the BSP is striving hard to retain its national party status, the SP, encouraged by its spectacular performance in its home state in the recently concluded general elections, is aiming to attain the status of a national party.

Yadav said they will enter the poll fray as a partner in the opposition bloc with definite programmes like housing for the large migrant population from UP.

“The Mumbai-UP connection is not only deep but strong. Migrants come and contribute to the development of the city while many corporates look at the country's largest state for their expansion plans. The SP is the third largest party in Parliament today and would strive hard to support both. Lohia always said 'socialism is prosperity and equality.' Thus, while growing it is important to strike a balance between private and government investors without compromising on social justice," Yadav said

He added the party’s founder and his father Mulayam Singh Yadav had cherished a dream to see the party grow and get a national status. “We will fulfil his dream soon.”

With the aim to win 10 seats, Yadav recalled how the SP had once agreed to honour veteran politician Sharad Pawar's wish for his party to contest a seat from UP while knowing it would be a tough battle. The party won three seats in 1995, four in 2009 and two in the 2019 Maharashtra assembly elections.

The BSP is one of six national parties in the country but its performance in terms of seats has been dismal in both the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections. Its vote share of 2.07%in 1989 touched 6.17% in 2009 and dipped to 1.67% in the 2024 general elections.

The BSP has so far failed to open its account in Maharashtra assembly elections though its journey started with a 0.42% vote share in 1990 and touched its highest of 4% in 2004. It polled 0.92% votes in the 2019 polls.

Two prominent political faces from UP in Mumbai are Abu Asim Azmi (SP) and Kripa Shanker Singh from BJP who was earlier with the Congress. Nirupam too has been active in the run-up to the polls. He is already trying to galvanise support among northern migrants for chief minister Eknath Shinde. He recently organised a meeting of the chief minister with hawkers and three-wheeler drivers, many of whom are migrants from north India, to resolve their issues related to livelihood; there is a sizeable population of north Indians in the chief minister and his son Shrikant Shinde's assembly constituencies.

Over the years, the Shiv Sena, which flourished on the slogan “Marathi Manoos” has also embraced the “bhaiyas” from north India while the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena leader Raj Thackeray has gradually diluted his party’s anti-north Indian agenda.

Singh, who recently contested the Lok Sabha election from UP’s Jaunpur, said migrants shifted from the Congress to the BJP in 2014 and the trend continued in 2019 and will continue in 2024.

Sanjay Pandey, president of BJP’s North Indian Front in Maharashtra, said the dip in support is primarily because of the opposition's false propaganda about the Constitution. On the representation of north Indians among party candidates to be fielded, he said his party does not give a ticket to the candidate only because he or she is from north India but on other factors like winnability and contribution to the party.

Sunita Aron is a consulting editor with the HT based in Lucknow. You can find her on X as @overto. The weekly column, Keeping up with UP tackles everything from politics to social and cultural mores in the country's most populous state. The views expressed are personal.