Sri Lanka's election: Test for regional dynamics

As Sri Lankans cast their ballots today, the country stands at a crossroads. This election is not only a domestic political event but a pivotal moment for the nation’s future, two years after a devastating economic collapse. The significance of this vote extends beyond Sri Lanka’s shores, with both India and China closely watching the outcome as they vie for influence in the strategically located island nation.

The top contenders, the incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, and leftist challenger Anura Kumara Dissanayake each offer a distinct vision for Sri Lanka’s recovery from its most profound crisis since independence. The 2022 economic collapse left the country bankrupt, triggering mass protests, the downfall of the Rajapaksa dynasty, and widespread public disillusionment. Today’s vote is, in many ways, a referendum on the leadership that followed and the future path of the country.

President Wickremesinghe has spoken of his role in stabilising the economy through tough austerity measures and securing a $2.9 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund. Under his leadership, inflation has been curbed, and the rupee has strengthened, but at a significant cost. His critics, including Premadasa and Dissanayake, argue that the heavy tax burdens and utility price hikes have disproportionately affected the working class. While Wickremesinghe’s policies have brought macroeconomic stability, they have also deepened frustrations among ordinary Sri Lankans, who feel left behind​.

Sajith Premadasa’s campaign has focused on restoring the rule of law and ensuring a fairer distribution of the economic recovery. His Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) has positioned itself as a champion of the middle and lower classes, promising to ease the burden of austerity while also building on the foundations of economic reform. Premadasa is seen as a reformer, but one who might adopt a less harsh approach than Wickremesinghe​.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the leader of the Left-leaning National People’s Power (NPP), has become a favorite among young voters and those disillusioned with the entire political establishment. He has positioned his platform as a radical departure from the status quo, emphasising transparency, anti-corruption measures, and an end to what he calls crony capitalism that has plagued Sri Lanka for decades​.

For Sri Lanka, foreign policy has always been shaped by the island’s delicate balancing act between India and China. This election could tip the scales significantly. India, which provided crucial financial aid during the 2022 crisis, is keen to see a friendly government in Colombo. The stakes for India are particularly high, given China’s deep inroads into Sri Lanka through infrastructure projects like the Hambantota port.

Sajith Premadasa, viewed as more pro-India, has been critical of China's debt-trap diplomacy and may seek to rebalance Sri Lanka’s foreign policy more in favour of New Delhi​. Dissanayake, on the other hand, has taken a more cautious stance toward India’s growing influence, especially regarding business deals such as those an Indian corporate group. His calls to reassess foreign economic deals suggest a potential strain in India-Sri Lanka relations should he come to power​. Wickremesinghe has maintained a pragmatic foreign policy, cultivating relations with both India and China to navigate Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. His re-election would likely mean continuity in this balancing act, though it would not alleviate India’s concerns about Chinese influence​.

The results of this election, expected by September 22, could set Sri Lanka on a new course. Whether Wickremesinghe secures another term, Premadasa ushers in a new era of reform, or Dissanayake captures the youthful desire for change, the next president will face an enormous task. Beyond managing the economic recovery, they must restore trust in government, reinvigorate democratic institutions, and recalibrate Sri Lanka’s position in an increasingly competitive geopolitical arena.

Sri Lanka’s future hangs in the balance today, and the world is watching. For India and China, the stakes are high in this strategically important election. But for Sri Lankans, this vote is about more than geopolitics, it is about reclaiming a nation from the grip of crisis and charting a course toward hope and stability.

This article is authored by Kamakshi Wason, Global COO, Tillotoma Foundation, New Delhi.