Quad gets an Indian boost

Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi’s visit to the United States (US) is going well, what with the visit to Wilmington, and the hugs and the handshakes. There are hiccups evident in the fact that the White House chose to call a group of extremists from the Khalistani fold hours before the Indian PM arrived, though the reasons for that meeting are yet to be understood. Meanwhile, there is much to celebrate in the visit so far. Never has Quad, the grouping that includes the US, India, Japan and Australia, had so much in its final statement that accords with Indian interests. It seems Delhi has, after a long period of hemming and hawing, chose to go all out on Quad.

The thing about Quad is that the media finds it so difficult to bracket. As they say, if it’s not a cow, is it a horse? In this case, is it a security grouping or an economic one. It seems both at times, and at times neither. All that wondering is made worse, as at least two leaders disappear from its deliberations. President Biden and PM Kishida will leave the stage, and Australia’s Anthony Albanese seems to be heading towards trouble according to polls. Out of four, only PM Modi will continue, together with his foreign minister (FM), who has probably the longest association with Quad, given that he has been steering Delhi’s position since 2015. While India has stayed determinedly away from any overt security language, it is slowly moving towards taking a more operational stance, as is Quad itself.

Consider the only stated ‘vision’ of Quad, drafted in 2023 is in effect, completely about security, even while it makes no mention of it at all. Its stated objective is “to support a free and open Indo-Pacific that is inclusive and resilient…a region that is peaceful and prosperous, stable and secure, and respectful of sovereignty – free from intimidation and coercion, and where disputes are settled in accordance with international law”. That reads China is big bold letters. Arising from that security imperative is a drive towards trade and commercial agreement that focusses on supply chain resilience. Especially active in this field are digital technologies including Artificial Intelligence, big data analytics, robotics, and internet of things (IoT). Cyber and quantum computing are key priorities here. Now consider the various groupings that are functioning. The recent founding of the Quad Tech Network (QTN) by the Australian government follows the formation of some ten working groups in 2021, including infrastructure, investment, critical and emerging tech, maritime domain awareness (MDA), climate and clean energy. This was followed by the Semiconductor Supply Chain Initiative and a Track 1.5 dialogue focused on 5G deployment and diversification--all together designed to get away from the overwhelming presence of Chinese companies like Huawei. Another working group later mapped each member’s space capabilities for the Space Cooperation Working Group in 2021, and yet another on cable connectivity and resilience. All sensitive areas, but also none one can group into a ‘category’. But that expansive alliance is just what FM Jaishankar appreciated at the recent foreign ministers’ meet, where he observed it was not “just a talk shop’ detailing the cooperation between navies in executing disaster operations, in the creation of fusion centre to operationalise MDA, an Open-Ration Access Network being deployed in Palau and a space-based climate warning system in Mauritius. Off-grid solar projects are actually happening in many Indo-Pacific islands. But the bottom line? That all are democracies, and market economies (as against the Chinese command economy) are working for a stable Indo-Pacific. And here’s the interesting thing. Quad’s earth observation data website is available to the region in sharing climate observation data. In simple terms, it’s not just about Quad Plus--though this is going on side by side--but providing services to the entire region. That’s big tick boxing for Quad.

Now consider the summit in Wilmington. First, it was a rather more muscular statement by a ‘group of democracies’ against the missile launches by North Korea, and “recent dangerous and aggressive actions in the maritime domain” (read Chinese coast guard vessels that rammed Philippine’s ships). Tied to that is the first-ever Quad-at-Sea Ship Observer Mission in 2025, to improve interoperability and advance maritime safety, between Quad coast guards which will see the Indian Coast Guard in its first plurilateral role. Add on to that the new MAITRI (Maritime Initiative for Training in the Indo-Pacific), clearly an Indian initiative, to monitor and secure the waters, enforce laws, and deter unlawful behaviour. Delhi will host the first MAITRI workshop in 2025. There’s the Quad Indo-Pacific Logistics Network pilot project, for shared airlift capacity and to “leverage our collective logistics strengths” for civilian response to natural disasters across the region. That’s good. But remember any shared capacity can also be deployed in other scenarios. And from Beijing, the most prominent aspect of the Indo-Pacific is that huge Indian peninsula jutting out over the Indian Ocea. That should be the focal point for logistics movements. We already have logistics agreements (separately) with all Quad partners. Quad has just tickboxed Indian Oceans Rim Association (IORA) as the premier forum for addressing challenges in the region. India takes over the chair next year from Sri Lanka. Then there’s the landmark Quad Ports of the Future Partnership to support sustainable and resilient port infrastructure development with a conference on this hosted by India in Mumbai. That another one in the eye for Beijing and its some 76 ports in 46 countries.

India specific initiatives are more. That includes 50 scholarships for undergraduate level in engineering, offering HPV sampling kits, detection kits, and cervical cancer vaccines worth $7.5 million to the Indo-Pacific region, and related digital infrastructure, and more. India is not part of the Open RAN yet, but hopes to be. Then there’s the reference to the 26/11 attacks and a “commitment to pursuing designations, as appropriate, by the UN Security Council 1267 Sanctions Committee”. The next Quad working group meeting on counter-terrorism is to be hosted by Japan. This is a core interest of Delhi, though perhaps not so much for the others, which makes the inclusion all the more important.

Quad is a grouping of just four, but it proposes--and to an extent has already started--to engage with the entire Indo-Pacific region. The message is one of democracies standing together to address common challenges, though the specific threats are left unsaid. That suits Delhi well, as it does Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries and Pacific Islands countries, all of whom are wary of another cold war fight along their shores. But all these activities will bring in private players and industry, which means there’s money to be made. Clean energy for example is slated to generate some $2.5 trillion in business. The challenge for Quad is to make sure this is also regional in opportunities and not limited to US companies. For India, this is an important summit, putting it virtually in a co-driver’s seat, with the Modi-Jaishankar duo offering the strongest element of continuity. By graciously allowing the shift of the summit from Delhi to Wilmington, the message from India is that its interest in Quad is now set in stone.

This article is authored by Tara Kartha, director, (R&A), Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi.