A new chapter in India-Sri Lanka relations

The Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s victory and ascension to the presidency marks a significant shift in Sri Lanka’s political landscape, with effects on its relations with India. On September 23, 2024, he took an oath as the 9th Executive President of the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka in the presence of Chief Justice Jayantha Jayasuriya at the Presidential Secretariat. He quoted, “I promise to fulfill your responsibility to usher in a new era of Renaissance for this country, and I look forward to your collective contribution to that.”

Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi extended his congratulations to President Dissanayake on his electoral victory, highlighting Sri Lanka's vital role in India's Neighbourhood First policy and the Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) vision. The SAGAR policy, implemented by the Government of India, is of paramount importance as it aims to enhance security, foster economic growth, and improve connectivity in the Indian Ocean region, with a special focus on key neighbours like Sri Lanka. PM Modi expressed his desire to work closely with the new Sri Lankan President to further strengthen the multifaceted cooperation between the two nations, benefiting not only their citizens but also the broader region. In response, Dissanayake thanked PM Modi for his kind words.

On September 22, 2024, the day the election results were announced, India’s High Commissioner to Sri Lanka, Santosh Jha, met with President Dissanayake to congratulate him on his victory and conveyed warm greetings from India's leadership. This meeting reaffirmed India’s commitment to deepening its close relationship with Sri Lanka, often regarded as India’s civilisational twin. This prompt meeting underscores the significance India places on its relationship with Sri Lanka.

This ongoing engagement reflects India's continued prioritisation of its relationship with Sri Lanka under the Neighbourhood First policy. The optimistic outlook suggests opportunities for enhanced collaboration in areas such as trade, maritime security, and people-to-people connections, further advancing India’s influence and cooperative leadership in the region.

Dissanayake’s reference to a New Renaissance highlights his vision for collaboration with India, grounded in shared strengths and regional security. The next phase of India-Sri Lanka relations is expected to emphasise economic cooperation, regional stability, and the reduction of Chinese influence.

Additionally, on September 23, 2024, Dinesh Gunawardena resigned as PM of Sri Lanka after President Dissanayake took oath.

Dissanayake, a longtime leader of the National People's Power (NPP), ran on a platform of economic sovereignty and transparency, emphasising the need for reform in Sri Lanka’s debt-laden economy. His campaign resonated with a population disillusioned by years of mismanagement and corruption. For India, his win offers both opportunities and challenges, Dissanayake's skepticism toward foreign control may lead to a rebalancing of external relations, including a reassessment of major Chinese projects, some of which India views with concern​.

India has a vested interest in ensuring a stable, cooperative government in Colombo. The proximity of Sri Lanka to India’s southern coast and the island’s strategic importance in the Indian Ocean makes it critical for New Delhi to maintain strong diplomatic and economic ties. PM Modi’s immediate outreach indicates India’s desire to build on the $4 billion assistance package it provided during Sri Lanka's economic crisis, deepening collaboration in areas like infrastructure, energy, and trade​.

Dissanayake’s stance on reducing foreign exploitation, particularly through controversial Chinese investments, could align well with India’s goal of curbing Beijing's influence in the region. At the same time, Dissanayake’s emphasis on Sri Lanka’s sovereignty means he may not automatically favour India in all dealings, but rather seek a balanced foreign policy​.

Dissanayake’s approach to foreign relations will be shaped by his efforts to reduce Sri Lanka’s dependency on China while fostering closer ties with regional partners like India. Given his past criticisms of Chinese debt-driven projects and his commitment to renegotiating unfavourable deals, Sri Lanka’s engagement with China may take on a more transactional, pragmatic character under his leadership. India will likely see this as an opportunity to offer more sustainable alternatives, particularly in infrastructure development​.

One of the sensitive areas that will require careful handling is Sri Lanka’s Tamil minority and the legacy of the civil war, which has historically influenced India-Sri Lanka relations. As India monitors the treatment of Tamils, especially in the north and east, Dissanayake will be expected to address issues of reconciliation and equality. Any moves that alienate the Tamil population could strain relations with New Delhi, particularly given the political and cultural connections between the Tamil populations on both sides of the Palk Strait​.

In this regional balancing act, Dissanayake may engage with both India and China selectively. On the one hand, he might seek to renegotiate unfavourable Chinese infrastructure deals, such as the Hambantota Port agreement, while keeping China engaged for economic investments. On the other hand, India’s geopolitical interests align with Dissanayake’s vision for sovereignty, making it an ideal partner for security cooperation, maritime collaboration, and sustainable development.

India can also leverage its soft power through shared civilisational ties, cultural diplomacy, and support for Sri Lanka’s democratic processes. Given the strategic importance of the Indian Ocean, cooperation in regional security, counter-terrorism, and environmental sustainability under the SAGAR framework will likely be central to bilateral discussions. Furthermore, India’s involvement in Sri Lanka’s domestic energy, infrastructure, and technological sectors could deepen, providing long-term stability and growth for both nations.

Furthermore, Dissanayake’s foreign policy approach will likely reflect a balancing act between China’s economic might and India’s regional influence, with Sri Lanka seeking the best outcomes for its national interests while preserving autonomy in decision-making.

Dissanayake’s presidency offers a new opportunity for India-Sri Lanka relations to evolve, rooted in mutual respect, regional security, and economic cooperation. While his focus on Sri Lanka’s sovereignty and transparency could lead to a reassessment of foreign deals, India’s strategic engagement will likely deepen under his leadership. The New Renaissance he envisions may very well rise from shared goals and interests, but it will require delicate diplomacy to balance domestic priorities with bilateral and regional expectations.

This article is authored by Kamakshi Wason, Global COO, Tillotoma Foundation.