Climate crisis data: A critical guide to government responses

The urgency of limiting global temperatures to 1.5 ℃ is established from the climate crisis data that addresses the question --what is the change in global temperature from the pre-industrial level due to anthropogenic factors? What are the impacts of the climate crisis? What science-based targets can define pathways for stakeholders to reduce greenhouse gases (GHG)? The climate crisis data constitutes a critical input to policy formulation and leads to a technical understanding of the nitty-gritty of climate crisis solutions.

It is through science-based data that we know our history of economic development. According to John Lang’s comments on the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Synthesis Report, humans emit about 40 billion tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere every year. It is equivalent to the weight of about 863,000 Titanics. Since 1750, we have emitted over 2,500 billion tonnes of CO2. It is comparable to 53 million Titanics.

One of the latest data on the climate crisis is the State of Global Climate report by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). It confirms 2023 as the hottest year on record, with the global average near-surface temperature at 1.45 ℃, with a margin of ± 0.12 ℃, above the pre-industrial average. The previous record of the warmest year was 2016 at 1.29 ℃ (± 0.12 ℃). It was 1.27 ℃ in 2020. It reveals the need for the global community and governments to address climate crisis issues seriously. Last year, the records for ocean heat, sea level rise, and glacier retreat were broken. UN Secretary-General António Guterres had to say that “Sirens are blaring across all major indicators.” Five years before the 2030 timeline, we have come dangerously close to the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 ℃ lower limit.

Data on the cost of damages due to the climate crisis determines the required levels of interventions for different countries and priority sectors for such interventions. According to the World Economic Forum, the global cost of damages to infrastructure, property, agriculture, and human health due to the climate crisis is estimated to be $1.7-3.1 trillion annually by 2050. UNCTAD statistical study finds that the annual cost of climate crisis action for 48 developing economies is about $5.5 trillion annually from 2023-2030, about 18% of their collective gross domestic product (GDP). These countries together constitute 68% of the population of developing economies. It also states that 84% of the total cost should be spent in 28 upper-middle and high-income developing countries. In absolute terms, these governments’ annual spending at $2,026 per person is five times higher for the low and lower-middle-income economies. In the vulnerable country group, it is $1,864 per person annually for eight small island developing States (SIDS), $658 for nine landlocked developing countries (LLDCs), and $331 for six least developed countries (LDCs). The vulnerable countries need 40% of their GDP to meet the climate crisis action and face biodiversity loss and pollution.

Governments, however, face a shortage of climate crisis finance. For the 48 economies, a gap of $337 billion per year, given their current trajectory, is observed. The gap can be bridged through a 6.5% increase per year in their spending. Category-wise, the upper-middle and high-income countries face a higher 7% of their required funds, amounting to $327 billion per year, while LLDCs are 4.8%, amounting to $5 billion per year. For all developing economies, the total annual spending should be $7 trillion, with a yearly gap of $410 billion.

The UNCTAD study considers the unsustainable consumption and production causing interlinked crises of climate, biodiversity loss and pollution, which should be addressed together for the 1.5 ℃ pathway. It prioritises global resource efficiency, pollution reduction and emission reduction. From the study, we can encapsulate the focus areas of global solutions to the climate crisis, including safeguarding marine, freshwater and land biodiversity; bolstering the sustainability of fisheries; increasing forest coverage; preventing land degradation; and halting the extinction of threatened species.

The 2015 Paris Agreement sets the 1.5 ℃ global temperature limit to which effect governments and private actors have pledged to net zero emissions. The IPCC is a United Nations body that assesses the science related to climate change. Its Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report released in March 2023 warned about insufficient pace and scale of climate action to tackle climate change. It reiterated the IPCC’s resolution in 2018 for the reduction of GHG emissions by 50% by 2030.

Further, climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in the race to 1.5 ℃ are data-based exercises. They demand quality data to support financing climate change action, switching to renewable energy, reducing fossil-based energy, and transferring technology. The emission reduction targets can also change with time if climate change efforts are not satisfactory on the path to the 1.5 ℃ limit. A new set of targets can be framed through science-based data.

The IPCC’s Synthesis Report estimated the need to increase 3-6 folds of the current climate action financing. It also identified the most vulnerable areas to climate change impacts, including parts of Africa, Asia, Central/South America, LDCs, Small Islands, and the Arctic. They are 15 times more likely to die due to floods, droughts, and storms compared to those in the most resilient areas. They contributed the least to climate change yet are the most vulnerable to its impact on food security and water security. This finding allows governments and multilateral institutions to bring fair and just solutions to the climate crisis. Climate-resilient development aims to integrate adaptation measures with GHG emission reduction that bring more comprehensive benefits to public health, poverty reduction and sustainable energy.

For the private sector, a corporate climate organisation called the Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTi) provides companies and financial institutions worldwide with standards, tools, and guidance to set reduction targets for GHG emissions to reach net zero by 2050 as soon as possible. SBTi validated more than 4,000 companies and financial institutions, leading the transition to a net-zero economy by the end of 2023 by setting emissions reduction targets. The SBTi, through its initiative Corporate Net-Zero Standard, launched in 2021, is the world’s first guideline for the private sector to ensure their net-zero targets align with achieving net zero by 2050. For this, SBTi aims to impact $20 trillion of the global economy under the 1.5 ℃ targets; 5GT of corporate emissions by supporting companies with science-based targets; and reach 10,000 companies to commit to adopting science-based targets.

Moving forward, all nations should submit their intended nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by 2025. UNCTAD suggests governments should spend on sectors depending on their particular national circumstances. Thus, depending on their urgencies, strengths and weaknesses, governments should focus on, for example, enhancing environmental planning and regulation, building climate-resilient infrastructure, promoting clean technologies like carbon capture, developing early warning systems, or restoring and conserving forests and marine life. Many developing countries, including LLDCs, SIDS and LDCs, do not have the capital to finance climate crisis research. They lack the technical capacity to formulate climate change adaptation and mitigation frameworks. Therefore, the scientific data produced by UN IPCC, UNCTAD, WEF, WMO, and SBTi, among others, can guide to 1.5 ℃ pathways. It can bring cooperation towards climate crisis action through political commitments, inclusive governance, and diverse knowledge-sharing.

This article is authored by Mehdi Hussain, assistant professor (former), department of political science, Kirori Mal College, University of Delhi.