India has big renewable potential but land conflict, population density could hamper boost: Report

The CEEW study analysed the country’s landmass and applied real-world constraints by using detailed 5x5km grid cells, which offer a more practical assessment of what can actually be developed and where.

The authors found that population density significantly limits the realisation of India’s renewable energy potential, with only 29% of onshore wind potential and 27% of solar potential located in areas with a population density lower than 250 people/km2.

Land conflicts further restrict deployment, with only about 35% of onshore wind potential and 41% of solar potential located in areas free from historical land conflicts. However, earthquakes are less of a concern, as 83% of onshore wind and 77% of solar potential are located in low to moderate seismic zones.

The CEEW study also identified states with high unconstrained RE potential including Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Ladakh.

“India stands at a pivotal juncture in its energy transition. It has set out to do the near impossible: provide energy access to millions of people, clean up one of the world’s largest energy systems, and become a green industrial powerhouse. While our RE potential is vast, the road to net zero is fraught with challenges. From land conflicts and population density to the unpredictable but undeniable impact of climate change, every step forward will demand resilience and innovation,” said Arunabha Ghosh, CEO, CEEW.

“The CEEW study goes into granular details of the county’s landmass to map out where we can build out renewable energy and green hydrogen projects while addressing the challenges of land, people, and compounding, non-linear climate risks. The scale of the task ahead is monumental, yet it is precisely this challenge that will define India’s legacy as a trailblazer for the Global South — a country that charts a low-carbon pathway to prosperity against all odds,” he added.

The analysis projects that the first 60 GW deployment has no significant constraints; between 60 GW and 300 GW capacity, the intermittency of renewable energy increases slightly, with locations experiencing two months of generation lower than one standard deviation from the median. Additionally, locations with existing conflicts will have to be used for renewable energy deployment.

In the 300-750 GW range, there is a trade-off between significantly higher land prices (between ₹8 and 16 lakhs per acre) and higher population density (between 250 and 400 people per square kilometre). Additionally, areas with higher population density are also associated with higher climate risk and conflicts. Beyond 750–1,500 GW, RE will need to be deployed in areas characterised as earthquake-prone zone 4 or in areas with higher seasonality, where generation is marginally lower than one.

“And finally, beyond 3,000 GW, there is an increase in challenges associated with all constraints, from land price to population density and conflicts. At the extremity of more than 5,000 GW, we need to deploy RE in highly earthquake-prone zones. Additionally, climate risks are quite high in some areas as we reach higher capacity requirements,” the study states.

India currently has an installed RE capacity of 150 GW, and up to 1,500 GW, the constraints are relatively manageable, CEEW said.