US elections: Guns in a new era of political violence

Trump's reaction to the assassination attempts has been notably measured. This may be due in part to the narrow ideological gap between Democrats and Republicans on gun control, leading to nuanced arguments from both sides. In the first and perhaps only debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump, Harris articulated the Democratic Party's stance on gun control by emphasising that both she and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, are ‘proud’ gun owners. This was a strategic move to counter the traditional Republican advantage on gun rights, aiming to appeal to moderate voters without alienating the party's base.

The Democrats have also highlighted the need for stringent background checks in response to numerous mass shootings, such as the Sandy Hook Elementary School tragedy in 2012 and the Uvalde shooting in 2022, which have driven public support for more robust gun control measures.

The stark reality in the US today is that guns outnumber citizens, with approximately 393 million firearms in civilian hands compared to a population of around 331 million. The second assassination attempt on Trump may not be the last, and it could deepen electoral anxieties, particularly among his conservative supporters.

Following the first assassination attempt, Trump's support surged, driven by the dramatic nature of the event. The attempt featured a cinematic scene where a civilian was killed by Secret Service agents after engaging with the shooter, who was later killed. The fact that the bullet grazed Trump, and images of him with blood streaked across his face, contributed to a narrative of resilience in the face of adversity. To many in the MAGA base, these events were seen as further proof of a hostile opposition attempting to derail Trump by any means necessary, including assassination.

The second assassination attempt, carried out by Ryan Wesley Routh in Florida, lacked the immediacy and visceral impact of the first. Trump was not at the scene of the shooting, diminishing the sense of direct threat. However, the attempt still fed into the broader narrative of a rising culture of political violence, which many conservatives believe threatens their values and way of life.

In response to the second attempt, Democrats have sought to avoid a direct debate over gun control. Instead, they have framed the incident as a failure of the US Secret Service, an institution they argue is under-resourced and overstretched. Both Democrats and Republicans have found common ground in the need for institutional reform within the Secret Service, which has fewer than 3,200 agents responsible for protecting national leaders, and foreign dignitaries, and investigating financial crimes. The challenge is compounded by the unpredictable schedules of political candidates, making comprehensive protection difficult.

Since 1999, there have been nearly 400 school shootings in the U.S., a grim statistic that underscores the urgency of addressing gun violence. Harris has been a vocal advocate for the Biden-Harris administration's efforts, particularly the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act (BSCA). This legislation, overseen by the White House Office of Gun Violence Prevention, aims to coordinate federal and state efforts to reduce gun violence. However, the implementation of these laws faces significant hurdles due to the diverse and often conflicting regulations across states, making a unified national approach difficult.

The second assassination attempt on Trump may have further consolidated conservative support for a more expansive interpretation of the Second Amendment. However, the Republican Party will likely tread carefully, avoiding an unrestrained endorsement of gun ownership that could alienate moderate voters. On the other hand, Democrats are emphasising that their opposition is not to gun ownership itself but to the lack of regulations that they believe exacerbate gun violence.

This nuanced positioning reflects a broader shift in American politics, where both parties are adapting to a rapidly changing electorate influenced by immigration, cultural shifts, and evolving party dynamics. This shift is particularly evident within the Republican Party, where the traditional establishment has increasingly found itself side-lined by the rise of Trump.

In contrast, the Democratic Party's leadership remains solidly aligned with its progressive base, as evidenced by the Democratic National Convention.

Interestingly, more than 100 Republican officials have publicly declared Trump ‘unfit for office,’ throwing their support behind Harris instead. This internal division within the GOP could prove decisive in the upcoming election. Yet, despite a strong debate performance, Harris remains tied with Trump in national polls, reflecting the deep polarisation within the electorate and the complex interplay of issues like gun control in shaping voter preferences.

The second assassination attempt on Donald Trump underscores the persistent and growing threat of political violence in the US. While it may not have the dramatic impact of the first attempt, it has nonetheless intensified the debate over gun control and highlighted the challenges of addressing such a deeply entrenched issue in American society. Yet, despite a better debate performance than Donald Trump Kamala Harris remains tied with him in national polls, and that may well be a macrocosm of the policies both candidates espouse, including gun control.

Dr Vivek Mishra is Fellow, Americas, ORF, New Delhi. The views expressed are personal