Pir Panjal elections: ST status for Pahadis overshadows development issues

As part of the seat-sharing agreement between the NC and the Congress party, the latter will contest from Thannamandi, Rajouri, Surankote, Katra Mata Vaishno Devi, and Reasi, while NC has fielded candidates in Gulabgarh, Budhal, Nowshera, Sunderbani-Kalakote, Mendhar, and Poonch. In the 2014 assembly election, the BJP won Nowshera and Kalakote, while the PDP secured Rajouri and Budhal. This time, the region has five seats. In Poonch, NC won Mendhar, Congress took Surankote, and PDP won Poonch-Haveli. Along with Pir Panjal, elections are also scheduled in eight constituencies in Srinagar district.

In Rajouri and Poonch, the BJP is focusing on the Gujjar and Pahadi communities, aiming to capitalise on their historical division to secure an electoral advantage. The two regions are crucial for BJP in Jammu where it is relying on Pahadi voters, especially after the Modi government’s decision to grant Scheduled Tribe status to the community ahead of the parliamentary elections.

The eight Assembly constituencies in these districts have a significant Gujjar and Pahadi presence; both communities have long been political rivals, a rivalry that has intensified since the inclusion of the Pahadis in the ST category. The BJP is hopeful to influence the Pahadi voters, while the NC and Congress are hoping to influence the Gujjar population and hope to win over some Pahadi voters with the help of spiritual leaders.

The alliance partners are heavily relying on veteran Gujjar leader Mian Altaf, who is a Member of Parliament for the Anantnag-Rajouri segment and is a respected spiritual figure for both Gujjars and Pahadis. After the conclusion of the first phase election on September 18, Altaf has shifted his focus to the Pir Panjal region to attract his followers to vote for India alliance partners, whose clean image, spiritual leadership, and parliamentary status will play an important role in influencing voters toward NC candidates across the region.

In Rajouri and Poonch, elections are often contested along the longstanding divide between Gujjar and Pahadi voters with spiritual leaders playing a key role in influencing the electorate. After resolving internal rivalries and bringing back rebel leaders who had quit following disputes over seat distribution, the BJP has launched a voter outreach campaign. Both Rajouri and Poonch districts have significant populations of Gujjar and Pahadi Muslims, along with a Hindu minority, making them politically diverse and strategically important. Together, they comprise a combined voter base of 842,214, crucial for shaping the region's electoral landscape.

In Rajouri, the seats of Rajouri, Budhal, and Thanamandi are reserved for Scheduled Tribes (STs), while Kalakote-Sunderbani and Nowshera are general constituencies. Rajouri's five seats have a total voter base of 490,591. In Poonch, Poonch Haveli is the only general seat, with Surankote and Mendhar reserved for STs, and the district has 351,623 voters across its three constituencies. I

In the Rajouri (ST) seat with 89,102 voters, BJP's veteran Pahadi leader and former MLC Vibodh Gupta is facing Congress' Iftikhar Ahmad, a fellow Pahadi, along with PDP’s Gujjar candidate Tasaduq Hussain, and independent Mian Mahfooz. The main contest is between BJP's Vibodh Gupta and Congress' Iftikhar Ahmad. Gupta is relying on traditional BJP Hindu voters and Pahari tribals, with a focus on attracting some Muslim Pahadi votes to boost his chances.

Meanwhile, Ahmad is counting on Gujjar and Pahadi Muslim support. In 2014, this seat was won by PDP. In the Budhal (ST) seat with 95,072 voters, BJP has fielded Gujjar leader Choudhary Zulfikar, a former PDP legislator. He is up against his nephew, Javaid Choudhary, representing the NC and PDP's young Gujjar activist, Guftar Choudhary. This seat, dominated by the Gujjar-Bakerwal community, sees the BJP trying to consolidate support by fielding Zulfikar to attract Gujjar voters, especially after resistance to granting ST status to the Pahari community.

In Thanamandi (ST), which has 1,22,370 voters, this seat is one of the most unpredictable in the Pir Panjal region due to the strong presence of candidates from Congress, PDP, BJP, and an independent candidate. The BJP is relying on Pahadi voters to support their candidate, while PDP’s Qammar Chowdhary is banking heavily on Gujjar-Bakerwal voters and the party's core base. The Congress candidate, Shabir Khan, expects backing from his stronghold in Manjakote but faces competition from an independent NC rebel leader, also from Manjakote, who could split the vote. While the BJP has a chance on this seat, a united Gujjar vote, along with loyal PDP supporters, could give the PDP an edge.

In the Kalakote-Sunderbani constituency, with 97,541 voters, BJP's 2014 winner Abdul Gani Kohli, a Gujjar leader, has been replaced by Thakur Ranbir Singh. Singh faces his nephew, Yushuvardhan Thakur of the National Conference, while the Apni Party's Arun Kumar Sharma has strong local support. The BJP holds an edge due to the influence of party president Ravinder Raina.

In Nowshera, with 86,506 voters, BJP state president Ravinder Raina is up against NC-Congress alliance candidate Surinder Choudhary, a former PDP MLC. Choudhary, a Jatt, has strong backing from the Jatt community and Gujjar-Bakarwals.

In Poonch’s Surankote (ST) seat, with 1,13,342 voters, senior Pahadi leader Syed Mushtaq Bukhari, a former NC legislator now with BJP, faces Gujjar candidate Shahnawaz Choudhary. Shahnawaz also competes with independent Akram Choudhary, a rebel NC Gujjar leader and cousin of MP Mian Altaf, making it a complex contest for the alliance partners.

In the Mendhar (ST) seat, with 1,07,494 voters, NC’s seasoned Gujjar leader Javaid Rana is competing against BJP’s Murtaza Khan, a Pahadi leader and former PDP MLC. The PDP has fielded Pahadi activist Nadeem Khan, but the main battle is between Rana and Khan, with Rana holding an advantage. In the Poonch Haveli segment, NC has nominated former legislator Ajaz Jan, who lost in 2014 to Shah Muhammad Tantray (JKPDP), now running for the Apni Party. BJP has fielded Gujjar leader Choudhary Abdul Ghani, causing discontent among Pahadi voters who wanted their own representation.

In the Gulabgarh (ST) seat of Reasi district, with 94,684 voters, alliance candidate and prominent Gujjar leader Engineer Khursheed Ahmad will compete against former Congress legislator Ajaz Khan, now running as an independent, and BJP’s Gujjar candidate Akram Khan.

In Reasi, Ajaz Khan’s brother, Mumtaz Khan, running on a Congress-NC ticket, faces BJP’s Kuldeep Raj Dubey, a first-time candidate. A total of 84,877 voters will decide this seat.

Mubashir Naik is a freelance journalist based in Jammu and he tweets @Sule_khaak.