J&K’s Chenab Valley emerges as a hot battleground in the election

The Chenab Valley could play a pivotal role in shaping the overall outcome of the elections as its diverse population and history of political engagement make it a key focus for all major parties.

Given the BJP's consolidation in Hindu-majority areas of Jammu, the NC-Congress alliance is banking on securing a significant portion of the Muslim-majority seats in the Chenab region. This may serve as a buffer against potential losses in other parts of the state, making the elections here critical for the alliance's prospects. This region, which used to remain out of the spotlight, has suddenly come under focus. Political analysts believe the area will play an important role in the formation of the government in J&K. In the last Assembly elections held in 2014, the BJP won four seats—Kishtwar, Ramban, Bhaderwah, and Doda—while the Congress secured the Banihal and Inderwal seats in Chenab Valley.

Favoured delimitation is likely to turn the tables

The delimitation process to redraw the Assembly constituencies in Jammu and Kashmir was finalised in 2022. The commission proposed increasing the number of seats in the J&K Assembly from 83 to 90. As part of the changes, six new assembly seats were carved out in the Jammu region, with one seat each in the districts of Doda, Kathua, Udhampur, Rajouri, Samba, and Kishtwar, bringing the total number of seats in Jammu division to 43. In contrast, only one new seat was created in Kashmir.

As a result, 43.8 % of the Union Territory’s population, residing in Jammu, will now vote in 47.8 % of the seats, while 56.2 % of voters in Kashmir will vote in the remaining 52.2 %. Before the commission's report, Kashmir's 56 % of the population held 55.4 % of the seats, while Jammu's 43.8 % held 44.5 % of the seats. Doda West and Padder-Nagseni are the two newly created constituencies.

Ahead of the state elections, Union home minister Amit Shah visited J&K. During his two-day visit, he unveiled the BJP's election manifesto on September 6 and stated that Article 370 would never be restored. Raising the morale of BJP workers in Jammu, Shah emphasised that only the Union government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, would restore statehood. Modi is scheduled to visit Jammu on September 14 to lead a campaign for his party in the Chenab region

A seat-wise analysis

Unlike the Kashmir Valley, the alliance partners are contesting in a friendly alliance on maximum seats in the Chenab Valley, giving a significant advantage to the BJP. Doda, the oldest district in the region, has three seats: Doda East, Doda West, and Bhaderwah. In all these constituencies, the ruling BJP is playing its cards carefully. In Doda East, two former ministers, Khalid Najid Suharwardy (NC) and Abdul Majid Wani from the Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) -- a regional party formed by Ghulam Nabi Azad in 2022 -- are prominent figures from the assembly segment. The BJP is banking on a relatively new face, Gajay Singh Rana, while the Congress has given a ticket to Riaz Ahmad Sheikh.

Another notable candidate contesting from Doda East is Mehraj Malik from the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). This segment has around 1 lakh voters, with the BJP securing about a fourth last time. Despite fielding a lesser-known candidate, the BJP is hoping to benefit from a division of anti-BJP votes. Suharwardy, Wani, and Malik all have significant vote shares, but still, the BJP is unlikely to win this seat.

In Bhaderwah, Doda, former BJP MLA Daleep Singh Parihar is in a triangular contest with Congress leader Nadeem Sharief and NC’s candidate, former IAS officer Sheikh Mehboob Iqbal. The AAP has fielded Vikram Rathore. The BJP has around one-third of the vote share in this segment. The division of anti-BJP votes between Sharief, Iqbal and Rathore is expected to make things easier for Parihar.

Doda West

In Doda West, former BJP minister Shakti Raj Parihar, who lost the District Development Council elections from two Doda seats in 2020, is contesting. He faces challenges from lesser-known candidates, including Pardeep Kumar of Congress, Tanveer Hussain of PDP, and Abdul Ghani of DPAP, along with two independent candidates. The seat has around 50,000 non-Muslim voters and around 35,000 Muslim voters. Among the 50,000 non-Muslim votes, about 17,000 are from the ST community is unlikely to favour the BJP. Despite Congress fielding a lesser-known candidate, the alliance is in a strong race, making this an interesting contest to watch.

In Kishtwar district, which has made national headlines in the past for communal tensions, the BJP is banking on a sympathy wave for 29-year-old Shagun Parihar, whose father, Ajit Parihar, and uncle, Anil Parihar, were killed by militants in November 2018. Shagun is facing NC leader and former minister Sajjad Kitchloo (who won in 2002 and 2008). The PDP leader and former MLC Firdous Tak is another prominent candidate.

This seat had been dominated by the NC before the delimitation, which consistently secured the majority of the vote share. However, after delimitation, the BJP is in a formidable position and holds around half of the vote share. Despite this, considering the anti-BJP sentiment, relying solely on sympathy votes may not be enough to secure the seat for the BJP.

In Padder-Nagseni, what was once seen as a cakewalk for the BJP is becoming increasingly challenging. Sunil Sharma, the BJP candidate, is facing NC’s Pooja Thakur, the sitting chairperson of the District Development Council (DDC) Kishtwar. The segment has less than 50000 votes, with the majority leaning toward the BJP. However, BJP rebel candidate Rakesh Gosawani, also known as "Rocky," and PDP’s Sandesh Kumar are other prominent contenders, both of whom are expected to cut into the BJP's vote share. Rocky is proving to be a difficult challenge for the BJP, while Pooja Thakur also commands a significant portion of the vote. This is shaping up to be another interesting contest to watch.

Inderwal

Ghulam Mohd Saroori (DPAP), who won the 2002, 2008, and 2014 elections on a Congress ticket, is now facing NC rebel Pyare Lal Sharma, Sheikh Zafarullah of the Congress, Sheikh Nasir of PDP and BJP’s Tariq Hussain Keen. In 2014, the BJP secured around 12,000 votes, but the strong trio of Saroori, Sharma, and Zafarullah are all likely to split the vote share equally. Although the BJP is not in a strong position, the division among anti-BJP voters may benefit the BJP. However, a win is still unlikely.

In the Banihal segment of district Ramban, former PCC president and ex-minister Vikar Rasool Wani is aiming for a hat-trick but faces a major challenge from NC’s Sajad Shaheen and PDP’s Imtiyaz Shan. However, PDP's Imtiyaz, currently in third position, could still surprise. Both Shaheen and Wani have strong bases in Banihal, but Shan's influence in his localities of Gool and Sangaldan is growing, which could impact the results.

New faces are emerging in the Ramban constituency, where BJP’s Rakesh Singh Thakur is competing against NC’s Arjun Singh Raju and the party’s rebel candidate, Suraj Singh Parihar. The seat was last won by BJP’s Neelam Kumar Langeh. The BJP holds the maximum vote share, but rebel candidate Suraj Singh Parihar could pose a challenge. NC has smartly fielded Hindu candidate Arjun Singh Raju, who, despite being lesser-known, might attract votes from his community. With no other alternative for the non-Muslim community, this could be a surprise for the BJP.

Chenab-based political analyst and noted journalist Ishtiyaq Ahmed remarked that for the past decade, very little visible political activity had taken place in the Chenab region, affecting political workers. He criticised the delimitation exercise as a "pick and choose" strategy used to benefit the BJP. He highlighted that, in Kishtwar, one of Doda's three districts, which has a smaller population than Ramban, was allocated three seats, while Ramban was given only one. Ahmed claimed that the delimitation was tailored for the BJP's electoral gains, but he believes that the people are politically aware and will counter these changes at the ballot box.

Another noted journalist and author, Anuradha Bhasin, said that it appears no party will secure an easy majority in J&K's assembly elections. The regional parties are primarily based in the valley, and there may be a fragmentation of votes among the NC-Congress alliance, the PDP, and several smaller parties in the valley

The focus now shifts to the Jammu region, where the BJP in the Hindu majority areas may emerge as the single largest party. This increases the significance of the Chenab Valley, which has eight seats, and the outcome of this election will depend on how voters respond in these areas.