J&K polls: A shaky Opposition could offset BJP’s tricky set of challenges

The polls, held after a decade, are particularly significant as voters are participating in an environment marked by political shifts and regional tensions: first assembly elections since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019.

BJP’s challenges

From strategic alliances to the battle against incumbency, the current election will shape J&K's politics and leadership for years to come. The BJP’s electoral campaign is centred on the abrogation of 370 and granting of Scheduled Tribe (ST) status to the Pahadi community, and despite growing anti-incumbency, this election is seen as a “crucial battle” for the party to secure dominance and validate its centralised policies.

Meanwhile, the opposition, particularly the National Conference (NC) and its coalition faces challenges in a fragmented political landscape. The exclusion of the PDP from a pre-poll alliance risks splitting the anti-BJP vote in key constituencies in the Jammu region

The election is crucial for the BJP as they seek to solidify the decisions made since 2019. However, the party faces significant challenges due to growing anti-incumbency and dissatisfaction in the region. The BJP's "Naya Kashmir" promises have not been fulfilled, leading many voters to feel disillusioned by the disparity between rhetoric and reality. Local industries have suffered greatly. The BJP's approach to the 2024 assembly elections can be seen as a make-or-break battle for political dominance.

The party is making aggressive efforts to win over rebel leaders, fighting as independent candidates who were not allocated seats, demonstrating their determination to win the polls. This represents a strategic shift from their previous electoral tactics, as they are now focused on uniting smaller factions under their banner to maintain a stronger hold over constituencies that might otherwise slip from their grasp.

Despite their best efforts, BJP is facing strong anti-incumbency sentiments across the Jammu region, particularly public dissatisfaction over the abolition of the “Darbar Move”, an annual ritual between the two capital cities of Jammu and Srinagar besides economic stagnation, lack of job opportunities, toll plazas, bureaucratic system and the new excise policy.

Recent policy decisions, such as changes in ‘Business Rules’ undermining regional autonomy, have triggered a wave of resentment among the BJP's voter base. While security remains a key issue, the public in the Jammu region has been increasingly vocal about local grievances.

Fragmentation and the Opposition’s Struggles

The opposition in J&K, in turn, is facing challenges due to its lack of unity in the Jammu region. The NC and Congress have formed a pre-poll alliance, but they have not included the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). The decision, likely to backfire in Jammu as well, risks splitting the anti-BJP vote in key constituencies. The lack of coordination between opposition parties has led to multiple candidates competing for the same pool of votes, which makes the chances of any single party securing a decisive victory impossible.

Despite anti-BJP sentiments in a few assembly segments, the opposition is struggling to capitalise on it because of internal divisions and the absence of a cohesive electoral strategy. The NC-Congress alliance, while potentially powerful, is not effectively consolidating the anti-BJP vote, allowing the BJP to exploit these fissures to its advantage.

Opposition parties face an uphill task in overcoming voter apathy and convincing them that they offer a viable manifesto. Decades of political instability, coupled with the absence of a functioning legislative assembly since 2018, have bred deep disillusionment among voters. For many, the upcoming elections feel like another chapter in a long saga of unfulfilled promises. This sentiment is particularly strong among the youth, who have become increasingly disillusioned with traditional political parties.

In constituencies like Marh, Akhnoor, Bahu, Jammu West, and RS Pura in the Jammu division, the Congress, within the INDIA Alliance, could have easily secured victories or, at the very least, mounted a formidable challenge. However, due to a glaring lack of coordination, the party seems unprepared. This oversight is poised to benefit the BJP, despite the strong wave of anti-incumbency working against them.

Mubashir Naik is a freelance journalist based in Jammu.