How Naidu’s triumphant return to power in Andhra Pradesh was scripted by Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena Party

Susanta Subhudhi, TDP’s national spokesperson said, “The landslide victory for the TDP-BJP alliance reflects the disillusionment of the people of Andhra with Jagan Reddy’s anti-development stance and the despondency because of a lack of jobs.”

The mastermind of Jagan’s collapse, however, poll watchers say, was JSP’s founder president Pawan Kalyan, who engineered the TDP-JSP alliance with the BJP and ensured the anti-incumbency votes were consolidated by the NDA. “Kalyan has been a game changer. It was upon his insistence that Naidu agreed to be part of the NDA,” said Ajay Kumar, national spokesperson of the JSP.

Naidu, the Captain, Pawan, the impact player

Less than eight months ago, when 74-year-old Naidu was jailed in Andhra’s Rajamamundhry central prison in February, Kalyan’s visit was thought to be a cordial one. However, once the election notification came in March, the actor-turned-politician announced that the TDP-JSP combine would fight the general election alongside the BJP and officially be part of the NDA. His colleagues in JSP were surprised to notice the conspicuous absence of TDP men during the announcement.

Many senior leaders in the TDP were even apprehensive of the alignment with NDA fearing accession over seat distribution, but Kalyan assured them of a fair deal. His good offices with the BJP leadership in Delhi ensured that the TDP was allocated 144 assembly seats and 17 Lok Sabha constituencies, the JSP 21 assembly seats and two LS seats, and the BJP 10 assembly seats and six LS constituencies.

Prof K Chandrasekhar, former head, department of politics, Sri Krishnadevaraya University, said, “Kalyan has shown maturity as a politician far beyond his years in politics. Instead of turning the conversation with the BJP top brass transactional by asking for more seats, he asked to be in the alliance, and that has proved to be the turning point both in Andhra and at the centre.”

Kalyan’s role, however, was larger than just a convenient seat arrangement. The TDP cadre were flustered at Naidu’s arrest. With the senior leaders unable to inject enthusiasm among their supporters, a distressed cadre looked pale and diffident about contesting both a state and a general election. “Until Naidu’s arrest, Kalyan and the TDP supremo worked in their strongholds. After Naidu’s arrest, Kalyan stepped in to energise the cadre of both parties stunned by Naidu’s sudden move to jail. The JSP leader travelled across the state addressing large rallies and held the fort until Naidu’s return on October 31.”

“Kalyan is the all-rounder the alliance needed. He batted for Naidu’s development plan, bowled out Reddy’s team calling them out of failed welfare measures, and fielded all criticism in Naidu’s absence single-handedly,” said a political analyst Hari. “The BJP took advantage of the pro-Naidu and Jana Sena wave,” he added.

Caste consolidation: Kapus and Kammas unite creating history

The TDP is filled with Kammas, with the Kapus reserving their support for the JSP. Together, they account for 25 percent of the state's population (18 percent Kapus, 7 percent Kammas). and live across coastal, central, and northern Andhra. However, with the TDP winning a good number of seats in the Rayalaseema region where Reddy hails from, it is apparent that the Reddys, who have historically been with the Congress, have voted for the TDP alliance as well.

At the time of announcing the alliance, cadres from the TDP and the JSP were not enthused, with multiple reports of friction, name-calling, and an unwillingness to work together at the mandal and village levels. Closer to the election, Prof Chandrasekhar said, the parties started working together resulting in a historic victory for the TDP. Three rallies by the Prime Minister in the run-up to the election, forced the Kapus to bury their long-standing grouse against the Kammas for poor political representation historically, and the Kammas saw the need to work with the Kapus as a Hobson’s choice, Chandrasekhar added.

Poll watchers agree that the consolidation of Kapus and Kammas helped TDP net a higher voter share this year. In 2019, TDP won just 23 seats for 39.17 percent vote share with YSRCP winning 151 seats netting 49.95 percent of the vote share. JSP finished a poor third winning a single seat for a 5.53 percent vote share. Both national parties, the BJP and the Congress secured less than 2 percent votes in the state election.